Dynamic Networks and Behavior: Separating Selection from Influence

A recurrent problem in the analysis of behavioral dynamics, given a simultaneously evolving social network, is the difficulty of separating effects of partner selection from effects of social influence. Because misattribution of selection effects to social influence, or vice versa, suggests wrong conclusions about the social mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics, special diligence in data analysis is advisable. While a dependable and valid method would benefit several research areas, according to the best of our knowledge, it has been lacking in the extant literature. In this paper, we present a recently developed family of statistical models that enables researchers to separate the two effects in a statistically adequate manner. To illustrate our method, we investigate the roles of homophile selection and peer influence mechanisms in the joint dynamics of friendship formation and substance use among adolescents. Making use of a three-wave panel measured in the years 1995-97 at a school in Scotland, we are able to assess the strength of selection and influence mechanisms and quantify the relative contributions of homophile selection, assimilation to peers, and control mechanisms to observed similarity of substance use among friends.